Look at this post as pure speculation
based on what I think I see as possible trends. These predictions are
NOT necessarily what I wish
to see, and should be treated as possibilities in the near or
not-so-near future. It might be interesting to look back on this post
with an analytical eye a year from now, or even five, to see whether
there's any further movement in these directions.
Continued Consolidation and
splintering in Bands will
continue. Some top and near the top bands will pick up highly skilled
players to fill in spots that open up, because they can provide
steady work and some small amount of security for sidemen. Meanwhile,
talented young gunslingers will always believe that they're ready to
break off and give it a try on their own.
Most of the new bands will fail,
largely because their front men continue to believe “it's all about
the music,” thus neglecting the all-important business side of the
bluegrass effort. Poor business planning and execution kills more
bands than poor or indifferent musicianship, partly because more
opportunity exists now than ever before for finding innovative ways
to grow. This is particularly true of taking the time to develop and
maintain an online presence, especially in social media. This is not
a job a recording company, booking agent, publicity agent, or
manager can accomplish for bands successfully.
More underfunded festivals to
emerge, and fail. Just as a
high proportion of new restaurants fail shortly after opening, so do
most new bluegrass festivals. This appears to be due largely to weak
planning and underfunding. Promoting a bluegrass festival is an
extraordinarily complex effort for a nascent promoter to undertake
just because they love the music and wish to share it with their
communities. While the new electronic opportunities open the way
further than ever before to finding and delivering an audience, they
also make the effort that much more complex. Also, audiences are
increasingly eager to be provided with comfort while spending a
lesser amount due to the decreasing value of the dollar.
Fewer name bands will be asked to
carry more festivals. At
present there are too few marquee bands being asked to headline
events in order to draw crowds. Almost all festival goers can name
all these bands and is likely to see them several times a year, if
they travel. Fortunately, most festival goers do not travel very far.
Take a look at the license plates in any festival parking area, and
count the number of out of state license plates. Nevertheless, there
aren't enough bands with high enough name recognition to attract
sufficient audiences to many bluegrass festivals.
Higher prices and more attendance
will
be the rule in 2014. As the economy continues to improve, increasing
numbers of people looking for reasonably priced entertainment will
discover bluegrass in both festival and arts centers. Furthermore, as
the boomer audience and younger continue to age, their appetite for
extremely loud music will diminish. This makes bluegrass and string
band music increasingly attractive to a gigantic audience. This
audience looks a good deal different from the more traditional
bluegrass audience, particularly at the younger end. More young,
health conscious parents will become less willing to have their
children's hearing assaulted by loud music, and they have more
dispossable income than all but the retired seniors. This will be
seen particularly in attendance at outdoor festivals during the
summer months.
More All-Star Bluegrass Festivals →
Fewer Opportunities for Newer Bands might
seem to be a contradiction, but seems to me to be likely. During the
now ending recession, people had to pull back on their entertainment
expenditures. Bluegrass festivals had to upgrade the quality of the
top of their lineups to attract audiences, and people became used to
a heavy preponderance of bands they either knew and liked or had
heard extensively on the air and on recording. This led to a number
of events that emphasized high name recognition from top to bottom of
the lineup and reduced the opportunity for lesser known and new bands
to gain exposure. As all-star festivals proliferate, local and
aspiring national bluegrass bands will have decreased opportunities
to gain real performing experience, gain confidence, and develop a
local and regional following at festivals. Festivals will continue to
take less risk.
The Bluegrass market will continue
to grow and move indoors. Part
of the bluegrass audience continues to age while wishing to remain
active fans of bluegrass. Younger people, with busy lives and active
families, really can't afford the time to attend festivals. Fewer
people seek the possible discomfort of rain and cold or searing heat,
sometimes on the same day. While a three or four day bluegrass
festival remains one of the great bargains in entertainment, fewer
people can commit the amount of time required to attend one. Younger
people are eager to hear their music delivered with good, reliable
sound. All these factors suggest the growth of indoor bluegrass.
The indoor bluegrass festival offers more comfort, flexible
facilities for large and small performance, workshop, and jamming
areas, as well as convenient hotel facilities at a discount. Such
events open the bluegrass experience to people who don't seek to
invest in RV's and don't wish the discomfort (for some) of tenting.
Such events also make bluegrass more easily available for urban and
suburban audiences, while lengthening the bluegrass season. As the
population of rural America continues to shrink, the indoor event
looks increasingly attractive.
Arts Centers Continue to Proliferate
in nearly every small and medium sized town where there is an empty
movie theater. Many of them are dilapidated art deco vaudeville and
movie palaces from the early to mid-twentieth century, while others
are even older opera houses or disused schools with large
auditoriums. Such facilities can be purchased by the the local arts
council and rehabilitated for subscription performance series in
addition to arts and craft classes, community meeting rooms, and much
more. Many of the arts centers program one or two bluegrass bands as
part of an eight or ten concert series which often includes a
symphony orchestra, a dance troupe, a Broadway musical, a pop or rock
singer, and a bluegrass band. These series are pre-sold with a
portion of the seats withheld for each special performance and
provide a bounty for bluegrass bands which once depended upon fine
weather. A corollary to this movement is that specialized bluegrass
promoters will become less necessary, but arts centers do need
bluegrass advisers.
Moderate to severe genre bending
will continue and many will
continue to call what they hear bluegrass, if it sounds like Bill
Monroe or not. Whether it's plugged in string band music that sounds
more like rock and roll than what we generally think of as bluegrass,
or contemporary music calling on the sounds and songs that predate
the bluegrass era, it can mix well with bluegrass in a variety of
settings, continuing to attract older and more conservative listeners
while introducing younger, rock-oriented fans to classic bluegrass
and country. There also seems to be a longing for quieter, but
equally up-tempo and emotionally pleasing music among maturing baby
boomers and millenials which can be satisfied by this mixing of
related musical styles.
Healthier Bluegrass Musicians Due to the ACA (Obamacare) (thanks to James Moss). During the past several years, we've seen many benefit concerts and fund raising efforts held for sick and dieing bluegrass musicians. Unless they have a spouse with a full-time job that includes family benefits, an increasing rarity during the past generation, few bluegrass musicians have health care. They're constantly in fear of the disaster that a serious illness or injury presages. The emergency ward truly isn't a real substitute for good supportive and preventive care, nor does life on the road encourage good habits. Even early reports suggest that musicians may be leading the charge in a turnaround of attitudes toward Obamacare, even with its flaws and difficulties, which can be resolved if we work together to solve them.
Streaming concerts and even
festivals will become more common. Changes
in the way that television works and how a television can be
connected to a computer make bluegrass concerts in your living room
an increasingly common event. You can already watch some bluegrass
events on television at a relatively small price. Imagine an evening
with four or five different bands playing while you enjoy them from
the comfort of your living room at a reasonable price made possible
because of the economics of scale.
There is an emerging audience for
bluegrass, if we can identify and nurture it. There's no knowing
how many potential bluegrass fans there are out there. We meet many
people along the road who tell us, “This is the first bluegrass
event I've ever been to. I'm having a wonderful time.” Many of them
have preconceptions about hillbilly music garnered from bad
television and visions of hay bales. They never knew, until they came
to the event that they were going to see some of the best musicians
playing some of the most sophisticated music there is. Each of us can
help grow the music by bringing a new person to a concert or to a day
at your local festival, by being a good ambassador for the music, and
by spreading the word. As time and technology move along, there will
be new venues and new delivery systems for new fans. It's never like
it was yesterday, let alone nearly seventy years ago, when Lester
Flatt and Earle Scruggs stepped on the stage at the Grand Old Opry
with Bill Monroe, and bluegrass music was born.
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